With about 13 million metric tonnes of waste generated yearly, Lagos State could transform its waste management challenge into a $2.5 billion yearly revenue opportunity, if systems are scaled to recover up to 70 per cent of recyclable materials, BERTRAM NWANNEKANMA reports.
With an estimated 13,000 metric tonnes of waste generated every day, Lagos appears poised for a transformative waste revolution if ongoing reforms, partnerships, and awareness campaigns succeed.
The city could soon turn its waste crisis into one of Africa’s most lucrative sustainability models, a $2.5 billion yearly industry that cleans the environment while creating prosperity.
In raw numbers, that daily waste generation translates into roughly 13 million tonnes yearly (when projected over 365 days), a figure used by industry analysts to estimate a potential revenue ceiling of $2.5 billion per year from recycling, composting, energy conversion, and upcycling. That number, while aspirational, reflects a growing consensus that waste is not solely a disposal burden but a convertible material stream with commercial and environmental upside.
Studies suggest that if Lagos were to recover even 20-30 per cent of that municipal solid waste, it could yield between N60 billion and N100 billion per year through activities such as sorting, reprocessing plastics and metals, composting organics, and generating energy. Private-sector leaders believe the upside is far greater still if systems are scaled to recover up to 70 per cent of recyclable materials.
For instance, executives at Polysmart Group project that PET plastics, representing about 10 per cent of the waste stream, could alone contribute between N39 billion and N58.5 billion yearly at current market rates before processing and overheads.
Scrap metals, cardboard/paper and organic waste streams also offer multi-billion-naira revenue opportunities. While these figures are gross values and must be adjusted for logistics, treatment, and recovery costs, they nevertheless highlight the “massive untapped commercial potential” of the sector.
With a more engaged citizenry and a supportive ecosystem, Lagos could shift from being known for its refuse heaps to becoming a model for the African circular economy.
Recycling breakdown and revenue potential
Head of Operations at Polysmart Group, Ikenna Abanonu, told The Guardian that the market potential of Lagos waste is massive, even by conservative estimates.
Using 2024 local market rates, he projected as follows: Material Recovery Share Price/Tonne (N), Revenue Potential (N). He noted that PET Plastics account for 10 per cent of the waste, accumulating between N120,000–N150,000 daily and N39 billion and N58.5 billion yearly. Similarly, Scrap Metals (Alu, Fe) account for 5 per cent, netting between N200,000 and N250,000 in revenue daily and N32.5 billion–N48.75 billion yearly.
Cardboard/Paper, 3 per cent, represents a daily income of N70,000–N100,000 and N6.8 billion–N11.7 billion yearly. Organic or Compost/Biogas accounts for 10 per cent, netting a daily income of N10,000–N30,000 and N3.25 billion–N11.7 billion yearly, while E-waste, Glass and others account for 2 per cent, varying between N1.5 billion and N3 billion yearly.
Abanonu noted that while these are gross market values, they remain impressive even after accounting for logistics, processing, and overhead costs.
“This estimate doesn’t fully capture informal sector activities across Olusosun, Solous, and other dumpsites or the value-added processes like pelletising, briquetting, or carbon credit monetisation,” he said.
“If scaled properly, Lagos’ waste sector could rival those of South Africa, where waste recovery contributes billions of rand yearly.”
Structural challenges and reform priorities
Despite the potential, several systemic challenges hinder progress. According to Abanonu, the key issues include a lack of segregation at the source, stressing that most waste in Lagos is mixed, making recovery expensive and inefficient.
Lamenting poor access to financing, Abanonu said that recycling infrastructure is capital-intensive, but many local recyclers lack access to patient capital and grants. He also lamented policy inconsistencies and enforcement gaps, noting a disconnect between waste management policies and ground-level enforcement, which affects private sector confidence.
According to him, public apathy is another issue, with limited awareness about the economic and environmental value of proper waste handling. He urged government and private stakeholders to strengthen Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes, integrate informal collectors, and promote eco-entrepreneurship through grants, incentives, and training.
“With government support and public participation, Lagos can profit from its waste economically, socially, and environmentally,” he said.
Government’s push for circular economy
To their credit, state authorities are proceeding with a range of initiatives aimed at shifting the paradigm from disposal to resource recovery. The Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) reports that major dump sites such as Olusosun Landfill and Solous III dumpsite have been converted into transfer-loading stations that feed new Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in Ikorodu and Badagry. These hubs focus on processing organics into fertiliser, plastics and metals into reusable outputs, and combustible residuals into alternative fuel for cement kilns.
In parallel, the Lagos government has signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with private sector firms. One MoU with Harvest Waste Consortium envisages a 60–80 megawatt Waste-to-Energy plant in Epe, converting municipal solid waste into clean power. Another agreement with D Nigeria Limited centres on e-waste recycling. A separate biogas conversion initiative, backed by the Swedish government and facilitated via a partnership between LAWMA and the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA), will repurpose organic waste from food-service and market operations to produce biofertiliser and fuel for municipal fleets.
The state is also moving to decommission key landfill sites and transform them into eco-parks or recreational facilities. In doing so, it aims to slash methane and other greenhouse-gas emissions, reduce flood risk by preventing drainage-clogging dumping, create green jobs, and build a genuinely circular-economy model in Africa’s largest city.
Beyond infrastructure and policy, the wider social and environmental benefits are substantial. Proper waste recovery would mean fewer open dumps, fewer landfill fires, less odour and vector-borne disease, cleaner waterways and beaches, and stronger resilience to flooding, particularly vital in Lagos, where population growth and climate change heighten the risk of extreme weather and sea-level rise.
Still, the realisation of the N60 billion-plus revenue opportunity hinges on the private sector, government and citizens acting in unison. Producers must embrace Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes; informal scavenger networks must be integrated into the formal value chain; capital must flow into sorting, processing, and recovery infrastructure; public education must foster a culture of sorting, recycling and circular-thinking; and policy frameworks must align with incentives, enforcement, and long-term vision.
The Managing Director of the Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA), Dr Muyiwa Gbadegesin, said Governor Sanwo-Olu has approved a steering committee involving LAWMA, LAMATA, and the Ministries of Energy and Transport to fast-track the biogas project.” Gbadegesin added.
Also, the Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, disclosed that the Epe plant, to be privately financed, built, and operated, would offer a 12 per cent internal rate of return over 20 years, supported by electricity tariffs and tipping fees.
With over 80 per cent of landfill capacity near exhaustion and two-thirds of residents relying on illegal dumping, the project is expected to drastically reduce landfill pressure, prevent drainage blockages, and mitigate flooding.
“The WTE facility is part of our broader effort to build a sustainable, resilient, and 21st-century Lagos economy,” Wahab added.
