The keenly contested nature of governorship elections in Ekiti State may be conspicuously missing in the June 20, 2026 poll, as political dynamics and electoral indicators increasingly point to a race heavily tilted in favour of the ruling party, AYODELE AFOLABI writes.
Less than nine days to the June 20 governorship election in Ekiti State, the atmosphere in the Land of Honour and Integrity remains unusually calm, a sharp contrast to the tension, fierce rivalry and political hostilities that have traditionally characterised governorship contests in the state since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999.
Historically, Ekiti governorship elections have been among the most fiercely contested in the country, often producing intense campaigns, dramatic political realignments and nail-biting finishes. This year’s election, however, appears markedly different. Despite the presence of 13 political parties and their candidates on the ballot, the race is increasingly being viewed as a one-horse contest, with the incumbent governor, Biodun Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), enjoying a commanding advantage over his challengers. The development may leave the electorate with little or no alternative choice of candidate in the exercise.
Unlike the fiercely contested elections of 2018 and 2022, where the outcome remained uncertain until the final votes were counted, the current political landscape suggests a far less competitive battle. In 2018, the then candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Prof. Kolapo Olusola, squared off against former governor Kayode Fayemi of the APC in a highly competitive election that kept political observers on edge until Fayemi eventually emerged victorious.
Similarly, the 2022 governorship election evolved into a three-way contest involving the APC candidate, Oyebanji, former governor Segun Oni of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the PDP candidate, Bisi Kolawole. Oyebanji eventually won with 187,057 votes, while Oni secured 82,211 votes and Kolawole garnered 67,457 votes. The election was particularly significant because, for the first time since 1999, the PDP was relegated to third position, while the SDP emerged as the state’s leading opposition force.
Ahead of the forthcoming poll, however, the political momentum appears heavily tilted in favour of the APC. Although all the participating parties have been accredited to contest, only the APC and the PDP have maintained visible statewide campaigns, traversing the 16 local councils and 177 wards in search of votes. The two parties also possess the most recognisable structures on the ground, with campaign billboards, posters and mobilisation networks spread across the state.
Even at that, political analysts believe the PDP faces an uphill task against the incumbent governor, whose administration has received endorsements from major political stakeholders across party lines.
Meanwhile, the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Ambassador Dare Bejide, and contenders from other parties have struggled to match the visibility, reach and organisational strength of the APC and PDP, further reinforcing the perception that the election may ultimately be a referendum on Oyebanji’s first term in office rather than a fiercely contested race among multiple contenders.
Oyebanji, the incumbent governor and candidate of the ruling APC, is seeking re-election alongside his running mate, Monisade Afuye, a princess from Ikere-Ekiti, the state’s second most populous town.
The governor enters the race with several advantages, including incumbency, the backing of the Federal Government, and the support of key figures within the APC. His campaign council includes several APC governors and other prominent party leaders, a development that underscores the party’s commitment to retaining the state.
Supporters of the governor point to projects undertaken during his first term, including the construction of a flyover, the development of the Knowledge Zone initiative, interventions for small and medium-scale enterprises, payment of pensions and gratuities to civil servants, as well as investments in road infrastructure, healthcare, education and agriculture. These projects are expected to feature prominently in APC’s campaign as evidence of the administration’s performance.
The recent visit of Vice President Kashim Shettima to commission projects in the state has also been interpreted as a sign of the confidence the President Bola Tinubu administration places in Oyebanji’s leadership. In addition, APC governors and national party leaders have continued to mobilise support for the governor ahead of the election.
Beyond party structures, the APC also enjoys control of the state’s political machinery through elected local council officials and political appointees. The governor has also received endorsements from traditional rulers, influential stakeholders and former governors, factors that many observers believe could strengthen his electoral prospects.
However, the election may not be entirely without challenges. Concerns over recent security incidents, particularly the abduction of worshippers in parts of Ilejemeje Local Council, have raised questions about safety in some border communities. While such incidents have been relatively isolated, some observers believe they could affect voter turnout and enthusiasm in affected areas.
Ultimately, the election is expected to test the extent to which the administration’s record, political support base and campaign machinery resonate with voters across the state.
The PDP candidate, Dr. Wole Oluyede, is an indigene of Ikere-Ekiti while his running mate, Mr. Deji Ogunsakin, hails from Ado-Ekiti, the state capital. Both men bring prior electoral experience to the contest. Oluyede contested the 2022 governorship election on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Ogunsakin was the PDP’s deputy governorship candidate in the same election.
This experience could work in their favour. In addition, the ticket draws its strength from Ikere-Ekiti and Ado-Ekiti, the two most populous communities in the state. Their campaign agenda centres on security reforms, including the deployment of surveillance drones and the establishment of additional police stations, as well as job creation, infrastructure development, payment of gratuities and improved access to affordable healthcare.
A medical doctor based in Australia, Oluyede is also the elder brother of the Chief of Defence Staff. While the PDP retains a visible presence across the state, the party continues to grapple with a protracted internal crisis that has split it into rival factions, creating uncertainty over the level of support available to its candidate.
The sentiment surrounding the Ekiti South Agenda may also offer Oluyede some advantage. Since the creation of the state, governors have emerged only from the Central and North senatorial districts, leaving the South yet to produce a governor. However, previous elections suggest that zoning sentiments alone have not been sufficient to secure victory for candidates from the district.
Compounding the PDP’s challenge is the position of a faction of the party aligned with the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and former governor Ayodele Fayose.
The group has openly backed Oyebanji’s re-election bid and has been actively campaigning for him. Although Oluyede has sought to build bridges with key figures within the faction, there is no public indication that such efforts have translated into political support.
The PDP also entered the race relatively late following prolonged legal disputes over its primary election. A court initially nullified Oluyede’s emergence as candidate before the Court of Appeal restored his nomination. During the crisis, he reportedly enjoyed the support of the faction led by former Minister of Special Duties, Kabiru Taminu Turaki, which has recently been associated with calls for former President Goodluck Jonathan’s return to active politics. Oluyede, however, has publicly expressed support for President Bola Tinubu.
The PDP candidate faces significant structural and organisational hurdles. Unlike the APC candidate, who benefits from incumbency and a largely united party structure, Oluyede must contend with a divided party and competing interests within the PDP fold in Ekiti State.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Dare Bejide, is a former Nigerian ambassador to Canada. His running mate, Paul Olowoyeye, is relatively less known in the state’s political landscape. The party says it has adopted a grassroots, door-to-door campaign strategy, with its manifesto centred on improving education, healthcare, agriculture and youth employment. So far, its campaign has largely been issue-based.
However, ADC faces significant challenges. Beyond its limited presence across the state, the party lacks the extensive grassroots structure and financial strength enjoyed by the major contenders. While Bejide is believed to be counting on support from former vice president Atiku Abubakar and other national figures within the ADC coalition, the party remains overshadowed by the dominance of the APC and PDP. Consequently, many political observers consider its chances of making a major electoral impact relatively slim.
Similarly, the Accord Party candidate, Opeyemi Falegan, 41, has sought to project himself as a youthful alternative and has expressed confidence in upsetting the political establishment. Nevertheless, the party’s organisational structure remains weak across the state’s 16 local councils and 177 wards. Its campaign activities have also been more visible in parts of Ekiti North than in other sections of the state.
Although Falegan is believed to be relying on political goodwill from Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, there has been no clear indication that such support will translate into significant campaign mobilisation or resources ahead of the poll.
Other contenders, including Labour Party candidate, Oyebanji Olajuyin, 67; NNPP’s Blessing Abegunde, 35; YPP’s Owoola Daramola, 54; and ZLP’s Victor Adetunji, 38, are running on platforms with limited visibility and organisational reach in the state. Barring any major political upset, they are not widely regarded as serious threats to the leading candidates in the race.
The credibility of the election will also largely depend on the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies and other stakeholders.
INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Dr. Bunmi Omoseyindemi, has assured voters and political parties that the poll will be free, fair and transparent.
According to him, significant measures have been put in place to guarantee a hitch-free exercise. These include the accreditation of 98 election observer groups, early deployment of motorcycles to difficult terrains in Ilejemeje, Ise/Orun and Moba councils, as well as the establishment of rapid-response communication teams to counter misinformation and fake news.
The commission has also intensified voter education campaigns in markets, schools, churches and other public places, while anti-graft agencies are expected to monitor and curb vote-buying during the election.
A major feature of the poll is the size of the electorate. INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan (SAN), disclosed that Ekiti now has 1,059,360 registered voters, representing an increase of about 66,000 from the approximately 993,000 voters on the register during the last governorship election. He urged political parties to mobilise eligible voters to participate actively in the electoral process.
Despite the generally peaceful atmosphere, civil society organisations under the Election Observation Hub, supported by the European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EU-SDGN II), have identified vulnerabilities that could affect the credibility of the exercise. They described the election as a critical test of the Electoral Act 2026, particularly regarding the performance of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and electronic transmission of results through the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal.
On security, the Inspector-General of Police has deployed special assets, with Deputy Inspector-General, Johnson Kokumo, serving as election commander. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) also announced the deployment of 9,747 personnel to ensure a peaceful and secure election.
