A member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Aloysius Uche Ordu, has warned that persistent delays in fiscal reporting, particularly by state governments, are obscuring policy assessment, undermining transparency, and discouraging investment across the country.
Ordu raised the concern in his personal statement released after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held in November 2025 and published on the apex bank’s website on Friday.
At the meeting, the committee voted by a majority to retain the benchmark rate at 27.0 per cent, reflecting continued caution over inflation risks.
“The committee decided by a majority vote to maintain the current monetary policy stance with an adjustment to the corridor as follows: retain the monetary policy rate at 27 per cent; adjust the standing facility corridor around the MPR at plus 50 to minus 450 basis points,” the MPC Chairman, Olayemi Cardoso, announced to reporters at the meeting.
In a personal statement that provides each member’s considerations before voting, the senior fellow and director of the Africa Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution said fiscal uncertainty remains elevated, while delays in budget implementation and reporting at subnational levels continue to complicate economic planning.
“Persistent delays in fiscal reporting, particularly at subnational levels, continue to obscure policy assessment and hinder investment planning,” Ordu stated.
He noted that the Federal Government’s decision to extend the implementation of capital components of the 2024 budget from June to December 2025 had created overlapping fiscal cycles, raising concerns about delayed releases, execution bottlenecks, and weakened business confidence.
The MPC member warned that the absence of a timely 2026 Appropriation could unsettle private sector expectations, heighten uncertainty, and increase the risk of extra-budgetary spending.
“Investor confidence appears intact, as sovereign debt instruments dominate fixed-income market activity. However, rising debt service obligations could strain fiscal resources, amplifying pressures on the budget. Strengthening revenue generation and improving transparency in fiscal operations remain pivotal to safeguarding fiscal sustainability.
“On the domestic front, fiscal risks remain elevated. Delays in presenting the 2026 Appropriation Act could unsettle private sector expectations, weaken investor confidence, and heighten the risk of extra-budgetary spending.
“These risks may be compounded by spending pressures associated with the onset of the 2027 election cycle, with implications for liquidity conditions and the inflation outlook. Renewed insecurity in parts of the country also poses downside risks to the otherwise optimistic macroeconomic outlook. Policy must therefore prioritise transparency, accountability, and the removal of structural bottlenecks to sustain investor confidence,” he added.
Ordu’s comments come amid growing concerns over the reluctance of several state governments to publish budget implementation reports or present their appropriation bills on schedule, despite constitutional requirements and repeated calls for transparency.
Many states routinely delay the release of quarterly or annual budget performance reports, while some operate for months on expired budgets or provisional spending approvals.
Similarly, most state governments are yet to release their 2026 Appropriation Bills or make them publicly available, a development that has further weakened fiscal accountability and transparency at the subnational level.
This practice weakens fiscal coordination, distorts macroeconomic data, and limits investors’ ability to assess risks at the subnational level.
The issue has become more critical following the devolution of certain economic responsibilities to states under recent reforms, including electricity market regulation and infrastructure development, which require credible fiscal disclosure to attract private capital.
Despite the fiscal opacity, Ordu noted some positive developments on the revenue front, with federation revenues improving even amid weaker global oil prices.
He said Value Added Tax collections in the second quarter of 2025 rose to N2.06tn, representing a 32.15 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2024, while monthly inflows to the Federation Account had averaged above N2tn since July 2025.
However, he stressed that revenues remained below target, underscoring the need for stronger mobilisation efforts and improved fiscal transparency.
Nigeria’s public debt also rose sharply from N121.67tn in the first quarter of 2024 to N152.40tn by the second quarter of 2025, representing 33.98 per cent of GDP. While still below the statutory 60 per cent debt ceiling, Ordu warned that rising debt service obligations could strain fiscal resources and exert additional pressure on budgets.
“On the positive side, federation revenue has improved despite weaker global oil prices, supported by strong non-oil receipts. VAT collections in Q2 2025 totalled N2.06tn, a 32.15 per cent increase over Q2 2024, while monthly inflows to the Federation Account have averaged over N2tn since July. Nonetheless, revenue remains below target, underscoring the need for enhanced mobilisation and fiscal transparency. Strengthening revenue generation and improving transparency in fiscal operations remain pivotal to safeguarding fiscal sustainability,” he said.
On the macroeconomic outlook, Ordu said global price pressures were easing, but uncertainties remained, calling for caution in domestic policymaking. He stressed that inflation remained Nigeria’s most pressing challenge and warned against premature policy loosening.
“Lowering inflation from a high level to a sustainable range takes time, often three to five years. Some countries have celebrated victory too early and were forced to reverse course,” he said, adding that the MPC must continue to signal a tight monetary stance to preserve policy credibility.
In a separate personal statement, another MPC member, Philip Ikeazor, said key indicators of macroeconomic stability remained aligned with the Bank’s restrictive monetary policy, highlighting its effectiveness in moderating price pressures and anchoring inflation expectations.
However, Ikeazor acknowledged that fiscal challenges persisted, as several benchmarks set by the Federal Government, including crude oil output and inflation targets, had fallen short.
He warned that a narrowing fiscal space reinforced the need for prudent monetary policy and stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to consolidate disinflation and safeguard macroeconomic stability.
“Despite ongoing efforts, fiscal challenges remain, as several key benchmarks set by the Federal Government of Nigeria, from crude oil output to inflation, have not met expectations. The revenue outlook points to a narrowing fiscal space, which underscores the importance of maintaining a prudent monetary stance, while strengthening policy coordination to consolidate disinflation and safeguard macroeconomic stability,” he noted.
