The defection of Governor Siminalayi Fubara and Rivers State lawmakers to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may have altered the political equation in the oil-rich state. It, however, remains to be seen if it is a ploy to reconcile with the estranged godfather, Nyesom Wike, or technically have him knocked out of the Rivers’ power calculus, ANN GODWIN reports.
Rivers State has once again become a battleground of elite power politics, where authority is shaped as much by party structures and federal leverage as by electoral mandate.
As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general elections, the state is sliding back into familiar political turbulence, driven by a fundamental question of control: who truly commands Rivers’ political machinery, the sitting governor, Siminalayi Fubara, or his estranged political benefactor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, whose influence has long extended beyond office?
The struggle is neither new nor subtle. It is rooted in a long-standing, zero-sum contest for authority, influence and access to state resources. However, recent events, notably Fubara’s return to office after his six-month suspension under the state of emergency and his dramatic defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) on December 9, 2025, have significantly altered the balance of forces.
Fubara resumed office on September 18, 2025, following President Bola Tinubu’s lifting of the emergency rule. While a fragile détente was publicly declared between the camps of Wike and Fubara, The Guardian observes that peace is largely cosmetic. Beneath the handshakes and exchanged pleasantries at public functions lie deep mistrust, unresolved grievances and an ongoing battle for supremacy.
Indeed, governance in the state continues to suffer unusual setbacks. The prolonged delay in appointing commissioners, along with other administrative bottlenecks, reflects the lingering power struggle. Though both camps claim to have sheathed their swords, the roots of the conflict remain intact, particularly Wike’s continued grip on the local government structure, a reality Fubara is said to find uncomfortable.
What has changed, however, is Fubara’s political trajectory. His defection to the APC, alongside key federal and state lawmakers and influential groups such as Rivers Women Unite for Sim, has shattered the long-standing dominance of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. More importantly, it has repositioned Fubara as the leader of the ruling party in Rivers State, directly challenging Wike’s once unassailable influence.
The governor’s growing closeness to President Tinubu has further strengthened his position. While Fubara insists that his frequent visits to the Presidency are driven by the collective interest of Rivers people, the optics suggest a governor steadily embedding himself within the centre of federal power. Last week, he confidently announced that Rivers State had already secured “70 per cent support” for President Tinubu ahead of 2027, a sharp contrast to his earlier, more cautious tone.
But Wike is not standing idle. The former governor is reportedly positioning trusted loyalists, including George Kelly Alabo, former Commissioner for Works and current Director-General of the Border Communities Development Agency, and Boma Iyaye, former Commissioner for Sports and ex-state accountant, as possible governorship contenders in 2027, although under which platform remains uncertain. At the same time, insiders say President Tinubu views Fubara as a preferred ally, largely due to his organic grassroots support, which could prove crucial to the President’s re-election bid.
Wike’s enduring strengths are well known. Over the years, he has built a formidable political machine in Rivers, backed by deep financial resources, strategic ruthlessness and an extensive network of loyalists across institutions, from the State House of Assembly to local councils. Even out of office, he has wielded power with remarkable effectiveness, often defying party hierarchies and legal headwinds.
Yet, signs of erosion are becoming difficult to ignore. With Fubara now firmly in the APC, political control of Rivers has entered uncertain territory. By party convention, governors are automatic leaders of the APC in their states, a point reiterated at the party’s national caucus meeting on December 18, 2025, according to APC chieftain Darlington Nwauju.
Wike’s political fate in Rivers State and at the national level appears increasingly uncertain, particularly after Governor Fubara’s defection to the APC, a move that effectively positions him as the party’s leader in the state. With all six South-South governors now aligned with the ruling party, Fubara’s regional leverage has also expanded.
For the FCT minister, the options are narrowing. He is politically isolated in the PDP, having been expelled by a faction loyal to Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, yet remains unrecognised as a member of the APC. His continued role as a spoiler within the opposition may prove unsustainable. With Fubara now firmly in the APC, Wike no longer controls the pathway to power in Rivers ahead of the 2027 elections. Any attempt to undermine the governor’s re-election bid would not only be a party matter but could also put him on a collision course with President Bola Tinubu, who needs Rivers to secure his own re-election prospects.
Legal practitioner and political analyst, Dr Chukwuma Chinwo, agrees. He notes that the APC structure grants governors sweeping authority over party affairs, often eclipsing even state party executives.
“It would be good to see the governor exercise his powers firmly and independently,” he said, adding that post-crisis reconciliation is a gradual process, not an instant cure.
“Normally, peace does not return as quickly as it is destroyed. It is easier to break a relationship than to rebuild it. Reconciliation requires systematic and consistent commitment,” he said while commenting on the fragile peace in the state.
“So, when parties that once worked together split, it takes time before they can truly embrace again. What we are witnessing is the aftermath of the crisis. Steps have been taken, the governor joining the APC is one, and we hope it ushers in the best for the state.”
For Dr Christian Onyegbule of Abia State University, the tide has clearly turned. He argues that Wike’s camp has, for the first time, “lost touch with political reality,” noting that the defection of four Rivers members of the House of Representatives, state lawmakers and women’s groups to the APC signals a weakening hold.
“At the national level, the APC will not allow Fubara to be bullied again,” he said, describing the defection as a decisive victory that has enhanced the governor’s relevance and access to power.
“Even at the National Assembly, the defection of four House of Representatives members from Rivers State to the APC shows that the Wike camp is either weakening or on the verge of total collapse. As far as state politics is concerned, they have lost relevance.”
“PDP will not stop fighting Wike, and the APC is not willing to absorb him. Without the PDP, he cannot enter the APC. Very soon, if not already, his influence will fade.”
The academic, who resides in Rivers State, said Fubara’s movement to the APC is one of the best developments in the state’s political landscape, arguing that it represents a significant victory. “The governor no longer needs intermediaries to access the President. He now goes directly to him, and that alone makes him relevant,” he said.
He prayed that the state remain peaceful, assuring that better days lie ahead. Civil society voices echo similar sentiments. Chairman of the Civil Liberties Organisation, Sunny Dada, describes the coldness between Wike and Fubara as “peace enforcement,” imposed by superior external forces rather than genuine reconciliation. He warns that the pre-election year could reopen old wounds.
“The final year before elections is always the hottest phase,” he said, describing the ongoing realignments as part of a broader fight for the soul of Rivers’ politics.
He explained: “In peace-building, we distinguish between peace-building, peace enforcement and conflict resolution. What happened here was peace enforcement, when a stronger power intervenes and imposes peace. That is very different from reconciliation.”
On the political battle ahead, he added: “Our analysis shows that the governor has received assurances from powerful quarters. He now feels protected, informed and confident. He speaks like a tactical Nigerian governor. At the same time, there is an unusual silence from the FCT minister, who appears to be recognising that powerful forces in Abuja support the governor’s realignment.”
He warned that the state may witness another round of conflict, given that it is a pre-election year. Unsurprisingly, the APC is upbeat. State Publicity Secretary, Chibuike Ikenga, said Fubara’s entry has expanded the party’s grip on Rivers and aligns with President Tinubu’s inclusive governance directive.
“What the governor has done has helped the APC expand its grip on Rivers State. Every right-thinking person from Rivers should be happy. It will breed peace, unity and development, and reduce tension and crisis,” he said. Expressing excitement over Fubara’s alignment, Ikenga added: “The more the merrier. Governor Fubara’s entry consolidates the party.
The FCT minister has also declared support for President Tinubu and the New Hope Agenda, which remains our unifying platform. Certainly, it is our turn.”
Also speaking, Nwauju, spokesman of the Emeka Beke-led APC faction, said that while the principle of governors as party leaders is largely undisputed, internal party politics remain complex. He noted that contests over influence and control are fluid and unpredictable.
“In Rivers State, the struggle over who truly pulls the political levers is far from settled, with undercurrents of intrigue and competing interests,” he said.
He maintained that past grievances continue to shape current alignments, noting that in Rivers’ charged political atmosphere, reconciliation is rarely total.
For Governor Fubara, he argued, the immediate challenge lies not only in confronting external opposition but also in consolidating his base and ensuring cohesion within his inner circle. “The coming months will test the resilience of his leadership and the depth of loyalty around him,” he said.
Nonetheless, supporters insist that political destiny transcends intrigue and opposition, arguing that if Fubara is destined to complete two terms in office, no force, within or outside Rivers State, can stop it.
As 2027 approaches, one reality is clear: Rivers State is once again a theatre of high-stakes political drama. Whether Fubara’s federal backing and party control can finally eclipse Wike’s entrenched machinery remains the defining question, one that will shape not only Rivers’ politics, but the wider national equation.
