With less than a month to go until its long-awaited national elective convention, scheduled for November 15-16 in Ibadan, Oyo State, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is once again standing on the precipice. What was meant to be a turning point for the country’s main opposition party could instead deepen its existential crisis, as five major hurdles threaten to derail the exercise or even fracture the party beyond repair, Azimazi Momoh Jimoh and Rotimi Agboluaje report.
Indications have emerged that the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may be forced to postpone its much-anticipated national elective conventionnational elective convention slated for November 15 and 16 in Ibadan, Oyo State, amid mounting internal disagreements and procedural uncertainties.
The gathering, billed to resolve the lingering leadership crisis and produce a new National Working Committee (NWC), has been besieged by legal, political, and personal intrigues that could once again push the party to the brink.
At the heart of the growing uncertainty is a five-factor inventory: active court injunctions, deep factional divides, allegations of document forgery, administrative confusion, and mounting security fears. However, beyond these visible crises lies a more strategic political undercurrent: the growing ambition of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde to ascend to national prominence, and the quiet yet potent ‘spoiler’ role being played by former presidential aspirant Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim within the South-West bloc.
Multiple court injunctions obtained by rival factions have effectively restrained the PDP from proceeding with convention preparations. A Federal High Court order directing parties to “maintain the status quo” remains active, creating a legal minefield for the National Chairman, Umar Damagum, and other NWC members. Any attempt to flout these orders could render the convention’s outcome null and void.
Behind the litigation are entrenched camps loyal to the acting national chairman and Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, Nyesom Wike blocs, both fighting for control of the party’s structure ahead of 2027.
The feud has deepened with fresh suspensions, counter-suspensions, and leadership claims at the national secretariat. The crisis has further polarised state chapters, particularly in the South, leaving the PDP fractured and uncertain about the credibility of any convention outcome.
Adding fuel to the chaos, the National Secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, has accused top party officials of forging his signature on key convention documents, prompting petitions to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Department of State Services (DSS), and the police.
The development has attracted external scrutiny and potential investigations that could stall the process entirely. INEC, now wary of internal legitimacy disputes, has yet to give full clearance for the convention’s delegate lists and procedural notifications.
Makinde’s ambition and the Ibadan equation
For Governor Makinde, whose state is billed to host the convention, the stakes are much higher than logistics. Within the party, the Ibadan event was designed to project Makinde as the new power centre of the PDP in the South, positioning him as a potential presidential contender or running mate in 2027. However, the deepening crisis threatens to turn that dream into a political liability.
Makinde’s subtle national moves are already drawing suspicion from opposing camps, who see him as a rising challenger. Sources within the party hint that some northern elements are uncomfortable with the “Ibadan convention” narrative, interpreting it as a launchpad for Makinde’s presidential ambition. These forces, reportedly in alliance with some Southwest elders and the national leadership, may prefer to frustrate the meeting than allow it to strengthen his hand.
Olawepo-Hashim’s ‘spoiler’ strategy
Further complicating the political arithmetic is the quiet but deliberate role of Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, a former PDP chieftain and presidential aspirant.
Operating from within the South-West caucus, Olawepo-Hashim, who is from North-Central, is said to be mobilising dissenting voices against Makinde’s dominance, insisting that the governor’s bid to use the Ibadan convention for national projection would divide the region and weaken PDP’s southern bargaining power.
Party insiders describe him as a “bridge figure” for anti-Makinde forces, a man with long ties to both PDP and APC circles, capable of disrupting Makinde’s consensus-building.
His engagement with key stakeholders and his recent aggressive media interventions underscore a broader regional struggle for who controls the PDP’s southern voice ahead of 2027.
Security fears and administrative confusion
Amidst the legal and political turmoil, concerns have arisen over possible disruptions and protests at the Ibadan venue. Security agencies are reportedly reviewing risk assessments due to tensions between opposing camps. In addition, the party’s abrupt changes to its legal team and conflicting public statements from the NWC have created operational paralysis that could make holding the convention on schedule almost impossible.
As things stand, the PDP’s Ibadan convention is hanging by a thread. While the official line remains that preparations are ongoing, the combination of legal injunctions, internal sabotage, and power tussles around Makinde’s rising ambition suggests otherwise.
Unless the party leadership urgently reconciles the factions and clarifies its legal standing, the much-anticipated convention may follow the path of past aborted attempts, becoming another casualty of the PDP’s endless struggle for unity and survival.
Meanwhile, political analysts are assessing what the exercise and Governor Makinde’s growing influence could mean for the opposition party and Nigeria’s political future.
Head of Political Science at KolaDaisi University, Ibadan, Dr Temitope Bello, said the PDP’s revival depends largely on how it manages its internal conflicts.
“No party can boast of absolute unity,” he observed. “But voters are clearly dissatisfied with the APC-led administration under President Bola Tinubu due to anti-people policies. The PDP has a better chance in 2027 if the process leading to its primaries and convention is credible.”
On Makinde’s political prospects, Bello was cautious. “Atiku Abubakar still has a greater national appeal than Makinde, but the political tide can change depending on how the PDP positions itself in the months ahead,” he added.
A legal scholar, Dr Babajide Oyemakinde, adopted a broader perspective, noting that political parties should be seen as vehicles for governance rather than mere power blocs.
“A party is a vehicle to attain government. The substance is governance, not politics,” he said. While acknowledging the PDP’s enduring presence in Oyo State, he argued that the party had failed to provide effective opposition nationally.
“A formidable opposition must not just criticise but offer credible alternatives. The PDP has not been consistent in this regard; it has been largely docile,” he said.
On Makinde’s positioning, Oyemakinde highlighted the importance of political capital and alliances. “Politics requires finances; they drive campaigns. Makinde may not necessarily be eyeing the presidency in 2027, but he could use the process to consolidate his national relevance,” he added.
Public affairs analyst, Mrs Yemi Alabi, painted a more dramatic picture of the PDP’s decline.
“PDP is like Humpty Dumpty, it once sat high but has fallen hard,” she remarked.
“Once Africa’s largest party, it has spent the last decade wallowing in a crisis of its own making. Pride goes before a fall. The PDP thought itself too big and too powerful to fail, but its 2015 defeat shattered that illusion, and piecing it together has been a Herculean task.” She lamented the steady defection of PDP governors and lawmakers to the ruling APC.
“To see elected governors in Delta, Akwa Ibom and now Enugu crossing over is sobering. The Dancing Governor of Osun was also set to join before local APC leaders opposed it. Many federal and state lawmakers have also defected. This over-concentration of power in one party is unhealthy for democracy,” she said.
Still, Alabi believes the PDP’s failures are largely self-inflicted.
“It’s easy to blame the APC for poaching members, but the real problem is PDP’s inability to keep its house in order,” she said.
“The party remains loved in many parts of the country, and its internal democracy, often better than others, is ironically part of what is hurting it. The transparent process that produced its 2023 presidential candidate also deepened internal rifts.”
She concluded: “The Ibadan convention is more than a gathering of party faithful. It’s a referendum on the PDP’s preparedness, a test of its evolving leadership dynamics, and a chance for new voices like Seyi Makinde to emerge.”
Professor Rotimi Olatunji of the School of Communication, Lagos State University, Ojo, described the convention as a “second chance” for the party.
“Perhaps the Ibadan convention offers the PDP a rare opportunity to reinvent itself, if well managed,” he said. “It also offers Governor Seyi Makinde a platform to assume a stronger leadership role. This is a trying period for the party, given the wave of defections by governors and senators. Makinde may just be the stabilising force the PDP needs.” Dr (Mrs) Adebukola Ayoola of the University of Ilesa, Osun State, commended Makinde’s consistency and commitment to party unity.
“Governor Makinde has held the PDP together in Oyo State despite immense challenges,” she noted. “His hosting of the convention reflects his loyalty and effort to keep the party as one indivisible family and a viable opposition.”
However, she advised caution about any presidential ambition.
“Based on his trajectory, Makinde is already one of the PDP’s key leaders, especially in the South-West,” she said. “But I don’t think contesting for the presidency in 2027 is the best option for him now. He should focus on finishing well in Oyo and strengthening his national influence within the party’s structure.”
Ayoola added: “He is more than qualified to contest, but the permutations within the PDP don’t favour such a move yet. What the party needs now is strategic rebuilding, not internal competition. Makinde should consolidate as a rallying figure for unity rather than divide energies in pursuit of the presidential ticket.”
