Although all schemes point towards the 2027 general election, the greater interest of prominent northern politicians seems to be focused on how to prosecute the 2031 presidential poll, which may bolster President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election chances, LEO SOBECHI writes.
Even before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) publishes its notice for the 2027 general election, the North has taken battle positions to assert its authority, either as king makers or cheerleaders, knowing that such strategic positioning primes them for superior advantage in 2031.
By virtue of its membership recruitment, the coalition platform of African Democratic Congress (ADC) has shown some dominance of the North East. This is just as the 102 National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) affirmed Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagun as its substantive national chairman.
The micro-zoning of the national chairmanship slot to the North East shows that the party wanted to balance the distribution of influence between the two big sub-regions of the North. It took the coalition of politicians on the ADC platform for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to do the right thing by returning the office of its national chairman to the North Central, where it was originally zoned before the coming of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration.
Agitations for the return of the headship of APC to the North Central was among the issues fueling antagonism to President Tinubu’s re-election, just as the alleged plot to substitute Senator Kashim Shettima as the Vice Presidential contender in 2027 heightened anxieties in the entire region, as the polity.
Politicians from the traditional vote vault of North West had claimed that President Tinubu breached his promise in 2022 that his running mate would come from the sub-region known for its traditional support for the late president Muhammadu Buhari. But sources within the APC had disclosed that Tinubu, as the presidential nominee of APC, had told the four outgoing governors from the zone as well as their colleague from North Central, that it was not proper to choose a potential vice president from North West, which was serving out eight years at the Presidency.
But with apprehension growing within the APC that the grievances from the North Central over the rezoning of the chairmanship to the North West could meld with the disappointment of the North West politicians to compound President Tinubu’s re-election woes, the decision to return the party chairmanship to North Central was hurriedly agreed upon.
However, instead of allowing the political leaders in APC to push a consensus choice as Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje’s replacement, President Tinubu went a little bit outside the core North Central to pick his former Minister for Humanitarian Affairs, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda.
It was in a bid to pacify the North West, party insiders claimed, that President Tinubu decided to pick the former Kano State governor, Ganduje, as the replacement for Senator Abdullahi Adamu, who resigned from the office.
Yet, as the President put the control of the APC structure beyond the northern hawks, they aligned with coalition elements to keep the President’s second term bid on a floating scale. Former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, was said to have capitalised on the subdued complaints in the ruling party to upscale his opposition crusade against the President’s second term ambition.
And so, with the turn of events, what the ruling APC could not give to the North, posterity has delivered to the region in two fold by handing ADC and PDP to them. In an apparent attempt to sustain the quiet political dichotomy between North West and North East, the two parties – ADC and APC – have given the two sub-regions reason to cheer.
In what could be described as a reward for the North East, the decision by PDP leaders to give them the office of the national chairman provides the sub-region the needed flip to rebuild its collapsing walls.
Atiku, PDP, APC And Divided North
It is becoming clear that the desegregation of North West and North East along disparate political platforms could impact on President Tinubu’s second term run positively due to a combination of factors. These include the positioning of the national chairmen of ADC, APC and PDP as well as the potential presidential candidates that could throw their hats in the ring in 2027.
Recently, former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who was returned as the first runner up to Tinubu in 2023, announced his desire to go for a rematch with the incumbent President, only that this time instead of PDP, the Adamawa State-born politician expects that the ADC will honour him with its debut presidential ticket after its adoption by the coalition of opposition politicians.
Although the confusing lines around Atiku’s participation in the 2027 presidential race do not render a clear understanding of whether it was a calculated strategy to wrong foot the APC and President Tinubu, observers believe that the former vice president was determined to contest the presidency for a third time.
While Prof. Ola Olateju told ADC faithful in Lagos that Atiku was prepared to play a behind the scene role in 2027, the former vice president quickly issued a rebuttal, stressing that since the rot in the country requires an experienced leader, “I will be offering myself to lead the reclamation and reconstruction of our traumatised homeland.”
One other northern leader whose presidential aspiration remains in the cloud is the 2023 flag bearer of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Although talks are still going on between the former Kano State governor and President Tinubu about the possibility of a political collaboration in 2027, indicators show that Kwankwaso prefers a loose arrangement that would accommodate his future political interest, namely the 2031 presidential contest.
Former Kaduna State governor, El-Rufai, is also in the long distance race for the 2031 presidency. El-Rufai, who succeeded in merging the structures of the Kaduna North chapter of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) with ADC, has been telling coalition partners that he does not want anything in 2027 apart from making sure that President Tinubu does not get a second term.
It was gathered that the former Kaduna State governor has been able to win a sizable number of influential politicians in the North West into the ADC, particularly Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara states. So, in the event that Atiku and Kwankwaso appear on the 2027 presidential ballot, votes from the seven Kadashian states would be split, a situation that could favour the incumbent APC and Tinubu.
Perhaps, against the backdrop of the long range planning for 2031 or the subtle political squabble between North West and North East, the coalition platform of ADC does not seem to command great enthusiasm in North Central and North East, despite Atiku’s presidential ambition and Senator David Mark’s chairmanship of the party.
Nigeria’s former Ambassador to Kenya, Chief Fidelis Tapgun, told The Guardian in an interview that his experience as Director General of Obasanjo/Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation in 2002 convinced him that the former vice president would contest the presidential election again despite the zoning principle.
Explaining his resolve not to join ADC, the former Plateau State governor dismissed the plot to stop President Tinubu’s re-election for lacking credible strategies to provide alternative socio-political and economic pathways for Nigeria’s prosperity, peace and progress.
“For me, I have read everything they are talking about; people say one thing and do something different, and talk from both sides of their mouth,” he stated, predicting that Atiku’s aspiration may disturb the momentum of the opposition ADC.
PDP’s Zoning, Bala’s Surrender
Rising from its 102nd National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, the main opposition PDP announced the zoning of the party’s presidential ticket to the South, even as it affirmed Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagun as the party’s substantive national chairman.
PDP expects that the zoning format would go a long way in rebuilding national confidence in the party as well as deflate Atiku’s 2027 presidential aspiration. Moreover, party insiders disclosed that the underground schemes that threw up Damagun’s affirmation include the possibility of providing a credible vent for some dissatisfied leaders in APC in the mold of Senator Ali Ndume.
But the elementary calculation in the recalibration of the party’s structure lies through the potential of rebuilding PDP into a competitive structure with North East as its strong base for the 2031 presidential election. In the event that APC and Tinubu substitutes the vice president, North East would have gained PDP as a consolation platform.
Factoring all these possibilities into his political future, including planting a preferred successor and sustaining his presidential aspiration, Bauchi State governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, was said to have bought into the arrangement, especially given the plan to have him occupy the office of Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) if PDP wins.
Governor Mohammed, who is also the Chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum, told his supporters in Bauchi that his decision to suspend his presidential aspiration was in the overall interest of national stability and unity.
He acknowledged the massive support his ambition to be president was gathering across the country, but declared: “My ambition is not bigger than Nigeria, and certainly not bigger than the party. If I don’t become President, I have held many positions in the past, and I am grateful for that.
“I am very satisfied with the resolution. I was part and parcel of the discussions from the strategic planning to the final decisions. It was an all-inclusive process. Most importantly, we resolved to maintain the current zoning formula for party offices and to zone the presidential ticket to the South.”
While stressing that zoning the 2027 presidency to the South would help to bring about greater unity, understanding, and stability within the party, Bala, who is also a former FCT Minister, informed the jubilant crowd: “In the interest of the unity and progress of our great party and our nation, I have chosen to step aside.
“What is most important to me is peace within the PDP and justice for all regions. I agree to give the South a chance for fairness and democratic progress.”
With this development, pressure would be on northern presidential candidates to emulate the Bauchi State governor. It would be seen whether the northern political elite would prefer a fresh candidate that could do a single term or accommodate President Tinubu’s second term as they concentrate on their plans for 2031.
