@Abdulazeez pls publish STICKY | NATIONAL
Fact-check: Tinubu’s 18 economic claims on Independence Day
Africa Check
On Nigeria’s 65th Independence Day, President Bola Tinubu made a series of economic assertions covering GDP growth, inflation, reserves, revenue, exports, and social spending.
A fact-check of 18 of those claims finds that 11 are correct, one is mostly correct, two are misleading, three are unproven, and one is incorrect.
Tinubu argued that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23 % in the second quarter of 2025, the fastest pace in four years. That is supported by data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
He also claimed that inflation dropped to 20.12 % in August 2025, the lowest in three years. That figure aligns with the NBS consumer price index (CPI) report, placing his statement in the correct category.
On foreign reserves, the president said Nigeria’s reserves reached US$42.03 billion, the highest since 2019. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data confirmed that gross external reserves hit about US$42.3 billion as of 29 September 2025.
Tinubu also claimed that N330 billion had been disbursed to 8 million households under the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP).
Public records and ministry updates confirm disbursements in that range to 8.1 million households, placing this claim in the correct bracket.
However, some statements were categorised as misleading or unproven.
For example, Tinubu compared quarterly GDP growth with annual IMF projections (3.4 %), a mismatch that turned misleading because the two metrics are not directly comparable.
Perhaps Tinubu’s boldest error was the claim that his administration slashed the revenue-to-debt service ratio from 97 % to below 50 %.
Available data from the Budget Office show that at the start of his administration, the ratio was substantially lower than 97%, making the stated reduction implausible. That claim is rated incorrect.
Another contentious claim that 153,000 workers had benefited from a N30 billion loan scheme could not be independently confirmed. No credible evidence was found to validate either the number of beneficiaries or the sum. This claim is thus rated unproven.
In sum, while many of Tinubu’s economic figures hold up, others rest on shaky comparisons or unverifiable assertions.
The gradation of verdicts correct, mostly correct, misleading, unproven, and incorrect reflects the complexity of assessing high-stakes political claims in Nigeria’s evolving data environment.
