The quiet contest for political power and relevance in the lead-up to the 2027 general election is redefining the interplay of politics and governance in Northern Nigeria. LEO SOBECHI reports that support and opposition to President Tinubu’s second term have become an issue for political competition in the region.
On the surface, the northern part of Nigeria presents as a ballot shopping mart. For presidential aspirants, the abundance of voters in the region raises the stakes. However, one man who tends to believe that the region stands out as his bargaining lot is none other than the Fourth Republic’s first Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
However, the core northerner that seems to disagree in principle with Atiku’s grand notion is the former mercurial Kano State governor and former Presidential contender on the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso carries on with the boastful swagger that, as the only presidential aspirant for the 2027 contest with a super voting state under his wraps, things can only get better.
Yet, amid the quiet contestation for a northern bloc vote between the two leading northern politicians, the incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu believes that, with the power of incumbency to his advantage, not less than three states and their governors will plough the electoral field for a bountiful ballot harvest.
Based on the opposition to President Tinubu’s re-election, which Atiku and a former Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, are orchestrating, some cautious northern governors have decided to walk in the middle of the road towards the decisive 2027 poll. But, clearly unfazed by ADC’s political scaremongering, the three Northwest governors that appear resolute to sink or swim with Tinubu include Dikko Radda (Katsina), Uba Sani (Kaduna) and Mallam Umar Namadi of Jigawa State.
On the North-East flank, Mai Mala Buni remains content as Tinubu’s long-term ally, even when his next-door colleague, Professor Umara Zulum, is not ashamed to be loyal and faithful to his benefactor, Vice President Kashim Shettima Mustapha. Although the remaining North-East states of Adamawa, Bauchi and Taraba could be said to belong to nobody, the fact that only Taraba would be seeking re-election in two years’ time makes Governor Agbu Kefas, a former Senator, vigilant and ever observant of the political wind vane in Abuja, the Presidency.
Kano and the Kadashian arithmetic
DESPITE the implicit and pledged support from two out of the four Kadashian States, Kaduna and Katsina, President Tinubu is not slacking in his strategic interest in Kano.
The situation in the North-West essentially revolves around one key factor: Who is the emerging political leader of the region? And that is where Kwankwaso has the field to himself based on control of Kano.
The former governor has, ever since his minion, Governor Abba Yusuf (Abba Gida-Gida), mounted the saddle as governor, been settling scores with political rivals, including President Tinubu, Atiku, the APC, and former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.
In the previous general election, Ganduje, riding on the wind of APC’s control of the federal might, stopped Yusuf and Kwankwaso from shoving him aside in the 2019 governorship, which went through inconclusiveness to a disputed run-off.
Having regained the governorship in 2023 through the instrumentality of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), one of the striking actions taken by Governor Yusuf and the Kwankwasiyya Movement was the dethronement of the Emir of Kano, Aminu Ado Bayero, who mounted the ancient stool after Ganduje orchestrated the dethronement of Emir Muhammad Sanusi II in March 2020.
Not that alone, while the leader of the Kwankwasiyya, Kwankwaso, fraternised with President Tinubu shortly after he won the 2023 poll, the impression was created that the former governor could be on his way back to APC in addition to a tentative cabinet appointment.
However, analysing the tone of Kwankwaso’s voice while they parleyed, President Tinubu was said to decode that the NNPP leader was playing hard to get in a crafty political manoeuvre. The appointment of Ganduje as acting National Chairman of APC, therefore, came as a strong message from the Presidency to Kwankwaso that the ‘City Boy’ knows the game.
Knowing that it was impossible for the two Kano political leaders to work together under one canopy with Ganduje as captain, President Tinubu renewed interest in drawing Kwankwaso into the APC corner, preparatory to the 2027 showdown.
Amid the renewed interest in luring Kwankwaso back to the APC, the dethronement of Aminu Ado Bayero and the reinstatement of Muhammad Sanusi II as Sarkin Kano occurred. This exposed the insincerity of both the Presidency and Kwankwaso in their dalliance, because while Kwankwaso’s protégé, Governor Yusuf, stood behind Sanusi II, Ganduje, with the support of the Presidency, propelled Aminu Ado Bayero to resist the changeover.
Noticing the hand of the Presidency in the renewed Kano Emirate wrangling, Madugu, as Kwankwaso is known, began making disconcerting political statements, suggesting a likelihood of aligning with the burgeoning northern coalition against Tinubu’s second-term aspirations.
Kwankwaso’s ambivalent political posture succeeded in capturing the presidency’s attention, leading to Ganduje’s ouster from the office of APC chairman. Presented as a goodwill gesture to humour Kwankwaso that the coast was clear for his return to APC, the Presidency was later to see that it fell for the wrong bait. Not long after Ganduje’s removal, former President Muhammadu Buhari passed away. This development left the Presidency in regret for sacrificing a fiercely loyal flag holder in Kano, Ganduje, while angling for a red herring that Kwankwaso had turned to.
Additionally, as he created the impression of joining forces with the coalition, Kwankwaso did not forget how Atiku and the former Sokoto State governor, Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, had joined forces to deny his allies even a slot in the North West Zonal Executive Committee of the PDP, before he travelled to NNPP.
Based on the rough time he had with Atiku and Tambuwal during their days in PDP, particularly at the Northwest zonal congress, Kwankwaso’s supporters maintain that it is easier for ships to sail through Rijiya Lemu than for their leader to join ADC. Recall that Tambuwal, who was then the chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, and Atiku combined to ensure that Kwankwaso’s men did not have any relevance in the North-West zonal chapter. Now, as things stand, Kwankwaso is the only northern leader with presidential interest who has a governor under his control, because he has the loyalty of Abba Yusuf. Atiku does not, and Tambuwal does not.
So, in the ensuing conversation and schemes about 2027, including nuanced discussion with the President, Kwankwaso enjoys the dance around, relieved that, unlike others, he has the advantage of controlling Kano.
As such, if he runs for President in 2031, he stands a better chance of adding Jigawa State to Kano, because currently, the Minister of Defence, Abubakar Badaru, and Governor Dikko are struggling to unite the APC under either leader.
And, usually in the North, when godfathers split, emerging political leaders go to where things are safer. That’s why Kwankwaso’s men are working hard, round the clock, to penetrate the grassroots in Jigawa.
Then, Atiku, on the other hand, knows that he has a tough mountain to climb, because he doesn’t have a state under his control. Kebbi is promising, with Abubakar Malami and his group. In his home state of Adamawa, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri has become a man of himself.
Similarly, with AUF in charge of Adamawa, even Senator Aisha Binani cannot mobilise more supporters than the state governor. As these developments unfold, Kwankwaso feels confident and can afford to challenge the President, even as he requests concrete agreements before joining the Tinubu Train for 2027.
As a practical political planner, President Tinubu knows that the combined forces of Senate Deputy President and Senator Kawu Sumaila cannot win more than 30 per cent of the votes in Kano during the Presidential contest, even with Kwankwaso on the ballot.
NNPP’s decision to suspend Abdulmumin Jibrin shortly after his visit to President Tinubu suggests that the game of hide-and-seek between the President and Kwankwaso was becoming exhausting for his followers.
A member of the Kwankwasiyya group, who is also close to Jibrin, said: “We know some of the things that made Kwankwaso insist that the President must have a written understanding that the APC structure must be handed over to him in 2031 if he was to cross over to the ruling party.
Madugu knows that he cannot be Vice President under Tinubu unless there is a strong arrangement. The guarantees must be there. And Tinubu, on his own, knows that Kwankwaso is not the kind of person he will have as a running mate. That is all I can tell you for now.”
Ganduje’s loss, pain
ANOTHER individual who appears troubled by the unending romance between the Presidency and Kwankwaso is the former Governor Ganduje. The former APC national chairman has been lamenting his loss of relevance in Kano’s affairs, particularly the erosion of his legacy.
Speaking at a send-off ceremony for the outgoing Vice Chancellor of Bayero University, Professor Sagir Abbas, last Saturday, Dr Ganduje regretted the discontinuance of developmental programmes by the succeeding administration.
Although Ganduje’s assertion that “cancelling or abandoning existing projects and programmes weakens governance and slows progress,” was a valid observation, some of those listening to him that fateful September 21, recalled how he also jettisoned legacy projects and programmes initiated by Kwankwaso, his former principal.
Chief among the grievances that residents readily hold against Ganduje after he parted ways with Kwankwaso is the sudden stoppage of the textile tailoring clusters that were spread across the 44 Local Government Areas of the state.
There is no doubt that political differences among the political leaders in the north are affecting governance and development. Emerging indicators suggest that things will deteriorate further, given the division over support or opposition to President Tinubu’s second-term bid. Instead of waning, identity politics is gaining new ground to the consternation of genuine lovers of democracy and development.
