By Christabel Ndoeche
The National Data Repository has released updated statistics on Wednesday, revealing the current state of HIV detection, treatment, and viral suppression across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The data also provides insights into trends over the last decade and the demographics of newly identified cases.
Lagos and Benue have surfaced as the dual epicentres of new infections, driven by a deeply concerning trend: the rising vulnerability of young women.
According to the NDR, “95% of people living with HIV now know their status”, marking a significant achievement in national awareness efforts.
Among those aware, “95% are receiving treatment, with 1,657,173 patients actively on treatment across 1,997 health facilities.”
Of those on treatment, “95% are virally suppressed”, reflecting strong adherence and program performance.
A 10-year trend analysis shows fluctuations in new HIV cases.
Cases rose from 228,014 in 2016 to a peak of 464,355 in 2020, before gradually declining to 21,389 in 2026, a drop of 90.8% from 2025 (111,513).
Other yearly figures include: 2017 – 237,756; 2018 – 215,231; 2019 – 27,181; 2021 – 451,402; 2022 – 330,690; 2023 – 238,748; 2024 – 143,666; 2025 – 111,513.
The steepest decline occurred in the last year, illustrating strong progress in HIV control.
In the last three months, new HIV infections by age and sex reveal young adults are most affected:
1–4 years: Male 282, Female 224
5–9 years: Male 70, Female 68
10–14 years: Male 79, Female 98
15–19 years: Male 234, Female 636
20–24 years: Male 691, Female 1,908
25–29 years: Male 1,106, Female 2,620
30–34 years: Male 1,032, Female 2,130
35–39 years: Male 993, Female 1,805
40–44 years: Male 1,020, Female 1,565
45–49 years: Male 813, Female 993
50+ years: Male 1,212, Female 1,426
Females recorded higher infections than males across nearly all age groups. The lowest infections were among children aged 5–9.
In the last three months, newly tested HIV-positive cases by state show Lagos leading with 2,342 cases, followed by Benue 1,956, Rivers 1,185, Akwa Ibom 1,155, and Anambra 1,023.
States with the lowest cases include Sokoto 83, Yobe 97, and Zamfara 139. Regional totals indicate:
South West: Lagos 2,342, Ogun 770, Oyo 766, Ondo 383, Osun 238, Ekiti 129 – total 4,628
South East: Abia 529, Anambra 1,023, Ebonyi –, Enugu 489, Imo 650 – total 2,691
South South: Akwa Ibom 1,155, Bayelsa 262, Cross River –, Delta 827, Edo 513, Rivers 1,185 – total 3,942
North West: Jigawa 184, Kaduna 859, Kano 462, Katsina 214, Kebbi 191, Sokoto 83, Zamfara 139 – total 2,132
North East: Adamawa 396, Bauchi 206, Borno 267, Gombe 261, Taraba 603, Yobe 97, Nasarawa 637, Niger 396 – total 2,863
FCT: 679
By region, the South West tops the chart, followed by South-South, while the North West reports the lowest total cases.
Patients currently on treatment by the state reveal significant regional disparities. Top states in treatment numbers include Benue (191,225), Akwa Ibom (142,216), and Lagos (137,006), while the lowest numbers are recorded in Sokoto (9,068) and Ekiti (12,271).
Breakdown by state:
South West: Lagos 137,006; Ogun 30,399; Oyo 32,126; Ondo 21,448; Osun 25,006; Ekiti 12,271
South East: Abia 49,961; Anambra 47,384; Ebonyi 15,399; Enugu 55,062; Imo 47,846
South South: Akwa Ibom 142,216; Bayelsa 19,477; Cross River 53,514; Delta 52,669; Edo 27,317; Rivers 90,403
North West: Jigawa 14,104; Kaduna 56,814; Kano 41,601; Katsina 19,206; Kebbi 18,168; Sokoto 9,068; Zamfara 12,641
North East: Adamawa 40,908; Bauchi 28,602; Borno 23,819; Gombe 26,618; Taraba 48,871; Yobe 10,726; Nasarawa 65,890; Niger 32,873 FCT: 59,844
Regionally, the South South leads in treatment coverage, followed by the South West, while the North West records the lowest numbers.
The NDR data highlights Nigeria’s strides in achieving 95-95-95 targets, with strong diagnostic, treatment, and viral suppression coverage.
However, the higher infection rates among females and in certain states underscore the need for targeted, region- and age-specific interventions to sustain progress.
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