Less than 10 months before the 2027 governorship election in Lagos, the race to Alausa is already heating up. Opposition parties are gearing up for an all-out battle to break the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) grip on power, but defeating the ruling party remains a daunting task. As political calculations intensify, attention and high expectations are on the APC, Labour Party (LP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), OPEYEMI BABALOLA reports.
Following the conclusion of the governorship primaries of the major political parties in Lagos State ahead of the 2027 elections, the battle for Alausa has effectively begun, with the state’s political heavyweights lining up for what promises to be another fierce contest for control of Nigeria’s commercial capital.
The ruling APC has handed its governorship ticket to incumbent Deputy Governor, Obafemi Hamzat, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle against opposition candidates seeking to achieve what no political party has been able to accomplish since the return to democratic rule in 1999: wresting Lagos from the grip of the political tendency founded by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
While the PDP settled for Adedeji Doherty as its standard-bearer, the coalition-backed ADC unveiled Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, one of the most recognisable opposition figures in Lagos politics. The NDC, a relatively new entrant into the political arena, has presented Funsho Doherty.
With the major candidates now known, attention is gradually shifting from party primaries to a more fundamental question: can any of the opposition parties genuinely threaten the APC’s long-standing dominance, or is Lagos heading into another election whose outcome appears largely predictable?
The answer to that question may ultimately determine not only who occupies Government House in Alausa after 2027 but also the quality of democratic competition in Nigeria’s most politically influential state.
For more than two decades, Lagos has remained under the control of one political family. Beginning with the Alliance for Democracy (AD), which later transformed into the Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and eventually APC, the same political tendency has retained control of the state without interruption.
From Bola Tinubu to Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the ruling party has maintained an enviable record of electoral victories, consolidating power across the state’s 20 local governments and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs).
Unlike many states where political structures are built around individuals and collapse after elections, Lagos APC has evolved into a sophisticated political machine supported by an extensive grassroots network, a formidable mobilisation structure, and a powerful decision-making body known as the Governance Advisory Council (GAC).
This structure has enabled the party to remain dominant despite changing political circumstances and occasional internal disagreements.
For supporters of the ruling party, this continuity represents stability, effective governance, and political maturity.
However, critics argue that the prolonged dominance of a single political bloc has created a political environment where electoral competition is increasingly weak and alternative voices struggle to gain traction.
This concern has become even more pronounced as the 2027 election approaches.
Ordinarily, worsening economic realities, rising transportation costs, insecurity, housing challenges, unemployment, flooding, and traffic congestion should provide fertile ground for opposition parties seeking to mobilise public frustration against the government.
Yet many observers believe that, despite growing dissatisfaction among segments of the population, opposition parties remain too weak, fragmented, and internally divided to effectively translate those grievances into electoral gains.
The figures from previous elections illustrate the scale of the challenge.
In the 2015 governorship election, APC secured 811,994 votes while PDP garnered 659,788 votes. Four years later, APC polled 739,445 votes against PDP’s 206,141.
By 2023, APC recorded 762,134 votes, while the Labour Party emerged as the main challenger with 312,329 votes. PDP collapsed further to 62,449 votes.
Beyond the figures, however, another trend is becoming increasingly noticeable.
Despite the continuous growth in voter registration, actual participation in elections has remained relatively low. In a state with nearly seven million registered voters, only a fraction eventually cast ballots.
Political analysts often identify voter apathy as one of the greatest threats to democratic development. Where elections appear predictable, and opposition parties seem incapable of offering credible alternatives, citizens gradually lose confidence in the electoral process.
Many begin to believe that their votes cannot alter political outcomes. Others simply disengage from the process altogether.
The result is declining turnout, reduced political participation, and growing cynicism towards democratic institutions.
For Lagos, these concerns are becoming increasingly relevant. The PDP, once regarded as the state’s strongest opposition force, appears significantly weakened ahead of 2027.
For years, the party occupied the position of principal opposition, fielding candidates such as Dapo Sarumi, Musiliu Obanikoro, Ade Dosunmu, Jimi Agbaje, and Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor.
Despite repeated defeats, the PDP remained a visible alternative capable of sustaining political debate and challenging the ruling party’s policies.
Today, however, the party appears to be struggling for relevance.
A combination of internal crises, leadership disputes, defections, and dwindling electoral fortunes has significantly reduced its influence. The party no longer controls any federal legislative seat in Lagos and secured only one councillorship seat during the 2025 local government elections.
At the national level, persistent disputes over leadership and party administration have further weakened its image among voters.
As Nigeria inches closer to 2027, the PDP increasingly resembles a party struggling to recover from years of internal turmoil.
The Labour Party’s emergence in 2023 further accelerated the PDP’s decline. Driven by Peter Obi’s popularity and the Obidient Movement, the Labour Party became the preferred platform for many urban voters, professionals, and young people seeking an alternative to both APC and PDP.
For the first time in years, Lagos witnessed a serious disruption of its traditional political calculations.
Peter Obi won the presidential election in Lagos, defeating both Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. The Labour Party also secured representation in the House of Representatives and the Lagos State House of Assembly.
Many observers believed the party had positioned itself to become a long-term opposition force capable of challenging APC dominance. Yet much of that momentum has since dissipated.
Post-election leadership disputes, factional battles, and organisational weaknesses have severely weakened the party. The defection of Rhodes-Vivour to ADC further diminished its standing in Lagos politics.
Today, the Labour Party appears far less formidable than it did during the height of the 2023 election season.
ADC presents another interesting but uncertain political experiment. The party gained national prominence following the defection of prominent politicians from the APC and the PDP.
Supporters believe the coalition provides a platform for opposition forces to unite against the ruling party.
In Lagos, Rhodes-Vivour’s emergence has boosted the party’s visibility. However, visibility alone may not be enough. Historically, ADC has never won a major election in Lagos. Its organisational structure remains relatively weak compared to APC’s entrenched machinery. The party is also grappling with leadership disputes at the national level, raising questions about its preparedness for a highly competitive governorship contest.
Similarly, the NDC remains largely untested. Although recent defections have increased public awareness of the party, it lacks the electoral history, grassroots presence, and institutional structures required to compete effectively in a politically sophisticated state like Lagos.
Its challenge will be transforming political attention into actual votes.
Taken together, these realities have fuelled fears that Lagos may be drifting towards a political environment where electoral competition becomes increasingly limited.
Democracy thrives when voters are presented with clear alternatives and competing visions of governance.
Strong opposition parties perform functions that extend beyond merely winning elections. They scrutinise government policies, expose shortcomings, propose alternatives, and compel ruling parties to remain responsive to public concerns.
Where opposition parties become weak or ineffective, the quality of democratic accountability often suffers.
Without meaningful competition, ruling parties may become complacent.
Citizens may lose confidence in elections as instruments of change. Public engagement may decline, while political participation becomes restricted to a small segment of the electorate.
Meanwhile, a member of the Labour Party, Badmus Adeyemi, argued that the health of a democracy should not be measured solely by the regular conduct of elections but by the competitiveness of those elections.
He said: “This is perhaps the greatest challenge confronting Lagos ahead of 2027. While APC enters the race from a position of overwhelming strength and the greatest financial strength, the opposition remains divided among multiple platforms, each struggling with its own internal challenges.
“The consequence is that many voters may approach the election with a sense of resignation rather than enthusiasm.
“If citizens believe the outcome is already predetermined, fewer may see reasons to participate.”
An indigene of Lagos, Festus Oladele, expressed concern that in a situation where people could easily predict the outcome of an election, “such a scenario would not only undermine voter turnout but could also weaken the legitimacy and vibrancy of democratic governance.”
He said that for opposition parties, therefore, the task ahead goes beyond defeating APC.
“The bigger challenge is rebuilding public confidence in competitive politics. Whether PDP can recover from its decline, Labour Party can rediscover its lost momentum, ADC can transform coalition politics into electoral strength, or NDC can emerge as a credible force may determine whether Lagos experiences a genuinely competitive election in 2027.
“Ultimately, the future of democratic engagement in Lagos may depend not only on the strength of the ruling party but also on whether the opposition can convince voters that political change remains possible through the ballot box.”
