Idowu Abdullahi
Global gains made in the fight against Human Immunodeficiency Virus over the past three decades are now at risk as fresh analysis shows that ongoing funding cuts could reverse years of progress and endanger millions of children.
A new report released by UNAIDS, UNICEF, and Avenir Health warns that current disruptions in financing could lead to spikes in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths among children.
In Nigeria, HIV is still a major public health problem with about two million Nigerians currently living with the infection.
A survey by the National Agency for the Control of AIDS indicates that Nigeria has an HIV prevalence of 1.3 per cent. NACA also notes that Nigeria has the highest number of people living with HIV in West and Central Africa.
In 2024, the Christian Council of Nigeria decried the huge burden of HIV in the country, noting that an estimated 160,000 children live with the disease, while only 45,000 are receiving treatment.
“According to statistics, Nigeria has a high number of children who are HIV victims – 160,000, with only 45,000 undergoing treatment. This is unacceptable, and we must do more to address this issue,” the CCN had said.
However, the new report published on the UNICEF website and obtained by PUNCH Healthwise on Monday noted that despite gains from collective actions against HIV for more than 30 years, progress remains bleak with recent funding cuts.
The report notes that every day, new mothers acquire HIV during pregnancy or breastfeeding, exposing their infants to heightened risk of infection.
Many children, it added, are still born without access to timely testing or treatment, a gap that widened significantly after major funding disruptions in 2025.
In the best-case scenario, where adequate resources are mobilised, the report shows that the global community could avert hundreds of thousands of new paediatric infections.
“With sufficient resources to reach global targets, 410,000 HIV infections and 520,000 AIDS-related deaths in children could be averted by 2040,” the report said.
However, if the world continues at its current pace, it added that the consequences would be dire.
“At the current pace of progress, the world would see 1.9 million new HIV infections and 990,000 AIDS-related deaths in children,” it said.
The report warns that the situation could deteriorate even further under a worst-case scenario defined by shrinking programme coverage.
It added, “A 50 per cent reduction in programme coverage — a plausible outcome given recent funding cuts — would result in an additional 1.1 million children acquiring HIV and 820,000 additional AIDS-related deaths by 2040.”
It explains that without renewed global commitment, coverage of life-saving interventions will continue to fall, inevitably leading to preventable infections and deaths.
“This report presents new modelling by UNAIDS, UNICEF, and Avenir Health on the potential impact of a 50 per cent reduction in intervention coverage, a plausible outcome if current funding cuts and related disruptions continue,” it said.
The report model compares projected new infections and deaths across various intervention scenarios, underscoring the urgency of immediate action.
“The cost of inaction on HIV for children models three possible futures, each shaped by political and financial commitment to prevention and treatment programmes. The projections show how dramatically children’s lives are influenced by the level of intervention coverage sustained over the next 15 years,” it said.
Beyond the numbers, the report highlights the real human cost of insufficient investment.
“Adequate resources would sustain prevention of vertical transmission, maintain antiretroviral therapy for women and children, and keep other high-impact HIV services accessible. But if current funding cuts persist, coverage will decline, service delivery will weaken, and more children will be born without the protection and treatment they need.”
PUNCH Healthwise reports that after his inauguration, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to immediately pause the country’s foreign aid to developing countries, including Nigeria.
The aid is funded by or through the State Department and the US Agency for International Development.
PUNCH Healthwise also reported that after Trump halted the support for HIV treatment in Africa and others, indications showed that Nigeria might record an increase in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths.
Experts raised concerns that the lack of funds could adversely affect the availability of drugs and testing kits, leading to a stall in the progress made in combating HIV and ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
Nigeria is one of the countries that benefit from PEPFAR, whose annual budget of $6.5bn has provided testing and medicines to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS for over 20.6 million people.
HIV is still a major public health problem in the country, with about two million Nigerians currently living with the infection, with many of them benefitting from PEPFAR.
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