No fewer than 84 per cent of Nigerians say they are likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, but concerns over insecurity, trust in the electoral umpire and the credibility of dispute resolution could undermine actual turnout, a new survey by Yiaga Africa has found.
The findings were contained in the organisation’s National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0, launched in Abuja on Wednesday.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, involved 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with 2,066 respondents interviewed by telephone and 404 through face-to-face interviews in rural communities.
According to the report, only 47 per cent of respondents were “very likely” to vote, while 61 per cent said fear of violence could prevent them from voting.
Insecurity remained the leading barrier to participation, with 82 per cent expressing concern that it could affect the 2027 polls. Confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission also fell from 45 per cent in the first two rounds of the survey, to 34 per cent in the latest edition.
The survey further found that 49 per cent of respondents trusted BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission, compared with 34 per cent who expressed confidence in INEC.
Meanwhile, 63 per cent said they had little or no confidence that the judiciary would resolve electoral disputes fairly, rising to 81 per cent in the South-South.
Speaking on the details of the report, Yiaga’s Chairman, Board of Trustees, Hussaini Abdu, said the idea of the report was not to pass a verdict on the elections or the voters, but to seek ways to improve voter intentions ahead of the elections.
“It’s a wake up call to Nigerians and to civil society organizations, and everyone that is involved in elections, that this election is very important to the country. It’s important for democracy. And there are some of the gaps that have been identified in this report, that we can work on,” he said.
Abdu also called on parties to assist in encouraging voter turnout, stating that it would be unfair to have a repeat of the 2023 elections where only 27% of registered voters went to the polls.
“Political parties have a very important role to play in terms of mobilizing their members and mobilizing voters, to do their civic duty. That’s one of the founding responsibilities of political parties.
“And therefore, they have a role to play in ensuring that voters come out. It is not good enough that you have over 100 million people registering to vote, and then you have only 27% like we had in the last elections, coming out to vote.
“Yes, our electoral system allows for simple majority, but it’s not fair on our democracy, for minorities, to actually be voting our leaders,” the Chairman added.
Speaking on the release, Safiya Bichi, Yiaga’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, said the reports proved that although Nigerians had not given up on elections, what stood between them and the ballot box was “fear, distrust and money,” noting that low voter turnout was a conversion problem rather than an apathy problem.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference. What stands between that willingness and
the ballot box is fear, distrust and money.
“Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem, and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics. With the presidential election on 16 January 2027, the window to act is short,” she stated.
The Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu, speaking with journalists, described the 84 per cent likely voter figure as a win, stating that stakeholders must work together to convince those who were yet to decide or who had voter apathy.
He however cautioned INEC not to overpromise, adding that while the Commission sought to deliver, there were those who were working to undermine the already complicated electoral process.
“I think INEC must not overpromise. It should under promise and then overperform. Because the election is a complicated process. There are a lot of push that are involved. So as we are working to deliver credible elections, there are also people who are working to undermine you.
“So sometimes when you overpromise, you put yourself in a difficult situation. So my advice to INEC is don’t overpromise.
“Understanding the climate of election, you need to be a little more reticent in terms of how you talk about operational issues. Inspire confidence that you are working, but don’t get to the details,” he said.
Among it’s recommendations, the organisation urged the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national
election security plan through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Elections Security by November 2026, prioritizing the North-East,
North-West and North-Central, and to protect voters, not only election materials.
They also urged INEC to “make a binding public commitment to real-time upload of all polling unit results
to IReV,” and to publish and stress-test its results management protocol in the South-East and South-South.
Finally, they charged the Judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballots are printed and to publish clear timelines for election petitions.
