President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be consolidating his hold on political power ahead of the 2027 general election. While some opposition leaders are forming new coalitions or seeking alignment with disenchanted northern politicians to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the President has continued to gain ground, particularly in the South, through elite realignments and high-profile defections.
The results of the last by-elections further confirms the strength of the ruling APC just as it exposed the weaknesses of the opposition parties, especially that of African Democratic Congress (ADC), which despite the public brouhaha could not even win a single seat out of the 16 contested across 12 states.
Despite facing a combined opposition force comprising former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governors Nasir El-Rufai and Rabiu Kwankwaso; and former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, Tinubu has managed to achieve what he couldn’t in 2023 – strengthen his hold across Nigeria, including parts of the North where he was weakest. The APC’s control of state governments across the three northern zones has increased significantly, while the South, especially the South-South and Southeast, has seen a wave of defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the ruling APC.
In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu polled 8.79 million votes and won 12 states, but his performance in the North was not remarkable. He lost Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, Kebbi, Taraba, and Plateau states. While he won Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Gombe states, his closest challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, dominated most of the Northwest and Northeast states.
The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso won Kano State, while Peter Obi of the LP took Abuja, Plateau, and Nasarawa states, making significant inroads in the North Central.
Tinubu’s losses were largely attributed to the APC’s poor perception under his predecessor, the late former president Muhammadu Buhari, the rejection of the Muslim-Muslim ticket by northern Christian voters, weak grassroots structures in certain states, and internal party conflicts in places like Kaduna and Katsina. In many of these states, Tinubu’s campaign depended heavily on local allies like El-Rufai, Aminu Bello Masari, and others, whose influence was limited or waning.
However, more than two years into his Presidency, the balance of power has shifted in Tinubu’s favour. Key defections from the PDP and NNPP to the APC, particularly in the North, are weakening the opposition and giving the ruling party a broader foothold.
In the Northwest, Tinubu’s weakest zone in 2023, the APC has since welcomed PDP lawmakers from states like Jigawa and Kaduna and has regained legislative seats through defections in Kebbi, Zamfara, and Sokoto. Former NNPP chieftains in Kano, Jigawa, and Zamfara have also joined the APC, eroding Kwankwaso’s base.
In the Northeast, the APC has further consolidated power with the defection of influential politicians in Bauchi, Yobe, and Gombe. The APC controls Borno, Yobe, Gombe, and is making inroads in Taraba and Adamawa, where Tinubu had struggled in 2023. In the North Central, the APC continues to dominate in Niger, Kogi, and Kwara, while winning over lawmakers and local leaders in Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau.
In the South, Tinubu has made significant gains since 2023. In the Southwest, the President lost Lagos and Osun during the last presidential poll, but the tide is changing. Lagos PDP’s 2023 governorship candidate, Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor), has defected to the APC, along with key members of the Lagos4Lagos Movement. In Osun, Governor Ademola Adeleke’s recent visit to Tinubu has sparked rumors of defection, especially as the PDP faces internal crises nationally and locally.
Tinubu is allegedly wooing Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo, whose 2023 support for him helped deliver victory in the state. It was gathered that the President is using what insiders call a “soft strategy” – relying on federal power and quiet negotiations – to win over opposition governors in the South who fear losing re-election support, federal appointments, or budgetary discretion.
In the South-South, Tinubu has transformed the APC’s presence since 2023. The party controlled only Cross River at the time but now boasts control in Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom following defections by PDP governors, including Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta) and Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), and former governor Ifeanyi Okowa.
Rivers State remains in flux. Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s face-off with his predecessor and current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, has opened new political calculations. Though Fubara remains in the PDP, he has no doubt drawn closer to Tinubu while trying to address the crisis in his state.
In Bayelsa, Tinubu has gained an unexpected boost with the recent endorsement by former President Goodluck Jonathan. Though not yet a formal defection, Jonathan’s public alignment with Tinubu and his praise of the President’s national reconciliation efforts have been interpreted as a subtle but powerful signal. The former president remains the most influential political figure in Bayelsa and a symbol of South-South political identity.
His support could weaken PDP’s dominance in the state, embolden APC loyalists, and reshape the political equation ahead of 2027.
In the Southeast, Tinubu’s electoral performance in 2023 was dismal. Peter Obi swept all five states. But LP’s internal divisions, Obi’s uncertain 2027 ambition, and the growing influence of APC figures like Governor Hope Uzodimma (Imo) and Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu have created new openings for the ruling party.
Uzodimma’s re-election and Kalu’s “Peace in Southeast” initiative under the Renewed Hope Agenda are part of a broader strategy to reposition Tinubu’s image in the region. Governors like Charles Soludo of Anambra (APGA) and Peter Mbah of Enugu (PDP) are reportedly maintaining cordial relations with Tinubu.
If Obi does not contest in 2027 or fails to rally a united opposition, Tinubu stands a chance of improving his performance in the Southeast, especially as APC structures are being built quietly across the region.
In summary, Tinubu’s 2027 map appears broader and stronger than it was in 2023. If he retains all the states he won in 2023, recovers Lagos and Osun, adds more states in the South-South, and improves his performance in the North Central and Southeast, he could secure a smoother path to re-election. The President’s incumbency advantage, APC’s growing national footprint, high-profile endorsements such as Jonathan’s, and opposition fragmentation may prove decisive in the battle for 2027.
Reacting to the possibility of an opposition coalition unsettling President Tinubu in 2027, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, said the administration is focused on consolidating economic reforms and infrastructure development. Speaking to journalists recently, Onanuga dismissed the opposition alliance as a group merely seeking power without genuine concern for Nigeria’s progress unlike President Tinubu, whom he said is working in the national interest.
He further disclosed that attempts by members of the opposition coalition to win over some key political actors in both the North and South had failed. Onanuga expressed confidence that President Tinubu has done enough to deserve re-election in 2027.
He also downplayed dissent from a few northern politicians, saying their views do not reflect the general disposition of the region towards Tinubu. As an example, he cited elder statesman, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, who recently declared support for the President and commended his economic reforms.
Efforts by the opposition to woo the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc within the APC didn’t succeed, as former president Buhari, before his passage, distanced himself from the coalition.
Beyond Onanuga’s remarks, many recent defectors to the APC have argued that their decision to join the ruling party went beyond internal crises in their former parties and was also motivated by the work President Tinubu is doing.
However, a chieftain of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Ralph Uwazurike, warned that relying solely on defections may not be enough to secure re-election for Tinubu in 2027. He said Tinubu must do more to win over voters in the South East, particularly by conceding more federal appointments to the region.
“The South East still feels largely marginalised under the Tinubu administration,” he said. “But I believe he can use the remaining two years to 2027 to correct whatever anomalies with the region.”
Similarly, a politician in Imo State, Captain Peter Mbamara (retd), said the APC would stand a stronger chance in the region if the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, does not run in 2027.
“Southeast voters will naturally gravitate towards Obi in 2027, especially if the PDP successfully woos him back to secure its ticket,” he said.
Mbamara, however, noted that this scenario depends on whether northern politicians would be willing to support an Igbo presidency for another eight years, or whether they would prefer Tinubu to complete his second term and return power to the North in 2031.
Following the 2023 elections, the APC controlled 20 states.
It has since added Edo, Delta, and Akwa Ibom to its fold. Meanwhile, the major opposition party, PDP, which initially controlled 13 states, has been reduced to nine, while APGA, NNPP, and LP control one state each. However, nothing is cast in stone yet; the journey to 2027 elections is just beginning.
