As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, ethnic sentiments are resurfacing in mainstream political calculations, deepening fault lines threatening both national cohesion and democratic growth, SEYE OLUMIDE reports.
While the 1999 Constitution did not expressly recognise rotation and zoning of power as a means to promote inclusivity, the unfolding political discourse suggests that raw ethnic considerations are increasingly overshadowing policy, competence, and national interest.
Historically, ethnicity has played a defining role in Nigerian politics. Yet, in the current climate, this factor appears particularly volatile. The North is vociferously agitating for power to return to the region after President Bola Tinubu completes his first term, citing what it describes as historical inequities in power distribution since the country’s return to democracy in 1999.
In response, the South-West insists on completing an uninterrupted eight-year term, arguing that it has already been guaranteed leadership under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) arrangements.
Simultaneously, the South-East is intensifying its call for inclusion, stressing that it has never produced a president in Nigeria’s democratic history.
The North’s argument
Northern leaders contend that by 2027, the South would have dominated the presidency for 18 of the 26 years since 1999, leaving the North with only 10 years in office. According to their calculation, following the eight-year tenure of Muhammadu Buhari (2015–2023), power should logically return to the North. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Senator Abdul Ningi (Bauchi Central), Buba Galadima, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai have consistently argued that the Tinubu administration has favoured the Southwest through budgetary allocations, appointments, and federal projects.
Northern grievances span several dimensions. Budget allocations, critics argue, have disproportionately favoured southern states, especially those in the Southwest, while infrastructure projects, including federal rail lines, power plants, and renewable energy initiatives, often prioritise southern routes, leaving the North underserved. Economic policies, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy, have exacerbated the region’s hardship by inflating transport and food costs, further straining the finances of northern households.
Security challenges, insurgency in the North-East and banditry in the North-West, remain inadequately addressed, heightening the perception of marginalisation.
Former Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello’s presidential bid during the APC primaries symbolised the North-Central’s position. Bello argued that power should shift to the North-Central zone after Buhari, rather than returning to the South, highlighting a broader northern belief that historical rotation has overlooked certain regions. The North-Central Renaissance Movement (NCRM) has since formalised this demand, warning political parties that ignoring the region’s claim could result in lost votes in 2027.
NCRM chairman, Professor K’tso Nghargbu, emphasised that the zone, encompassing Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and the Federal Capital Territory, has never produced an elected president or vice president. “It is our duty and responsibility to demand that political parties cede their presidential ticket to our region,” Nghargbu asserted.
South-West: Insisting on a full cycle
The South-West has positioned itself as a stabilising force amid these tensions, insisting on completing an uninterrupted eight-year tenure in the presidency. Under the APC zoning arrangement, the South is entitled to hold power until 2031, following Buhari’s two terms. Former Senator Dayo Adeyeye, leader of the South-West Agenda for Tinubu (SWAGA), reiterated that internal party agreements and historical precedence support the South’s claim.
The APC’s National Executive Committee reinforced this stance by endorsing President Tinubu for re-election in 2027. While northern stakeholders continue to agitate, the party leadership insists that any perceived marginalisation is mitigated by adherence to internal zoning agreements. Despite this, some northern voices have interpreted Tinubu’s candidacy as an overreach, arguing that a southern continuation beyond 2027 violates the spirit of power rotation.
South-East: The demand for inclusion
The South-East continues to assert its long-standing exclusion from the presidency. Leaders from the zone argue that while the South-West produced Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007) and the South-South had Goodluck Jonathan (2010–2015), the South-East has never occupied the nation’s highest office. Former Imo and Anambra State Governors, Rochas Okorocha and Peter Obi, respectively, have highlighted this persistent marginalisation through their electoral ambitions. Obi’s candidacy on the Labour Party platform in 2023 symbolised the region’s desire for equitable participation in national leadership.
The South-East’s demand for inclusion underscores a broader pattern: Nigerian politics remains deeply influenced by ethnic and regional calculations, with voters increasingly attentive to perceived historical injustices rather than purely policy-based arguments. Obi’s political moves, echoing northern discontent, illustrate the cross-regional dimension of zoning-related agitation.
Opposition politics and intra-party tensions
While the APC maintains a degree of internal cohesion around southern leadership, the opposition platform, particularly the PDP, has experienced intensified zoning disputes. The party’s National Executive Committee last zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to the South, a decision contested by northern actors, including Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, who insisted that the North must be given a fair chance. Former PDP Deputy National Chairman Olabode George criticised the North-Central agitation, arguing that the presidency should remain in the South until 2031 to honour the zoning arrangements.
Atiku Abubakar’s departure from the PDP to pursue his presidential ambition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) reflects these tensions. Like Peter Obi, Atiku’s move signifies a regional assertion against internal party structures perceived as exclusionary. Atiku’s alignment with northern-led opposition factions, alongside defections from APC, further demonstrates the enduring influence of zoning in shaping Nigeria’s political landscape.
Recent months have witnessed significant realignments in the north, signalling a deepening political rift. Former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami defected to the ADC, citing governance concerns and party marginalisation. Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed (Binani) of Adamawa State resigned from the APC to join the ADC, describing it as a credible alternative to address northern grievances. Nasir el-Rufai’s exit from the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and ADC similarly reflects dissatisfaction with APC’s internal dynamics. Collectively, these moves underline northern resolve to reclaim influence ahead of 2027 and shape the presidential succession debate in their favour.
Northern agitation is framed not only in immediate political terms but also in historical arithmetic. Since 1999, southern presidents have collectively held power for 18 of 26 years: Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West) – eight years; Goodluck Jonathan (South-South) – five years, including Yar’Adua’s incomplete term; and Bola Tinubu (South-West) – projected four years by 2027. Northern leaders argue that this disproportion justifies a reset in 2027.
Critics contend that former President Jonathan, who completed Yar’Adua’s term and served his own four years, should have played a role in ensuring a balanced eight-year rotation for the South. By failing to secure a formal mechanism to equitably distribute presidential tenure, Jonathan is seen as indirectly contributing to northern claims of historical marginalisation.
Implications for democracy
The resurgence of ethnic-based political mobilisation threatens to undermine democratic processes. The competition among the North, South-West, South-East, and North-Central is no longer confined to internal party arrangements or constitutional considerations. It now shapes voter perception, electoral engagement, and party cohesion. Observers warn that unless these tensions are managed prudently, Nigeria risks repeating historical cycles of political polarisation and instability, reminiscent of past elections when ethno-religious grievances nearly unravelled national unity.
Zoning disputes have also affected party structures and coalitions. Within the APC, the South’s continuity claim has mitigated intra-party conflict, yet lingering northern dissatisfaction has created openings for defections and alternative alignments. In the PDP, northern claims have challenged internal cohesion, prompting some aspirants to seek alternative platforms or independent candidacy, further fracturing opposition unity.
As 2027 approaches, all regions are keenly aware that the question of power rotation carries both symbolic and practical significance. Northern leaders frame their claims around fairness, historical justice, and redress for perceived marginalisation. The Southwest insists on continuity under internal party arrangements. The Southeast continues to press for recognition and inclusion, while the North-Central demands its opportunity, warning of electoral consequences should it be ignored.
The ultimate resolution of these competing claims will test Nigeria’s democratic maturity. How political parties manage zoning disputes, reconcile ethnic grievances, and maintain internal cohesion will have significant consequences for national unity. Scholars and analysts caution that the absence of careful management risks deepening distrust, voter apathy, and potential unrest.
The 2027 election is poised to be a defining moment in Nigeria’s democratic journey. The interplay of ethnic sentiments, historical grievances, and party politics underscores the delicate balance that must be maintained to preserve national cohesion. As northern leaders press for a return to power, the Southwest asserts its entitlement to complete its tenure, the Southeast demands inclusion, and the North-Central seeks its long-overdue opportunity, the unresolved question of equitable power rotation looms large.
Former President Jonathan’s perceived failure to formalise a balanced rotation for the South has amplified northern arguments, adding a historical dimension to contemporary debates. Meanwhile, defections and realignments across APC, PDP, ADC, and SDP signal that political realignment is underway, potentially reshaping Nigeria’s political map.
The stakes are high. How Nigeria negotiates the intersection of ethnic sentiments, zoning, and presidential succession in 2027 will determine not only the next occupant of the Aso Rock Villa but also the resilience of its democracy and the unity of its people. Failure to address these tensions could reignite divisions that have long threatened the country’s stability, making ethnic reconciliation, credible zoning agreements, and inclusive politics more crucial than ever.
Insisting that the ethnic and regional narratives being advanced by some politicians, both from the North and others reportedly disgruntled with the incumbent administration—will have little bearing on the 2027 elections, former National Vice Chairman of the APC, South-West, Bankole Oluwajana, said, “The issue of ethnicity and zoning is being propounded by a few politicians who have personal grudges against President Tinubu. Out of that animosity, they are working to get him out, not necessarily in the interest of Nigeria.”
Oluwajana added that President Tinubu has already achieved significant political penetration across the South-East, South-South, and substantial parts of the North. “For instance, President Tinubu is not facing any major threats in Kano, even though the state is controlled by the opposition NNPP,” he noted.
In a similar vein, elder statesman, Tanko Yakasai, argued that ethnic and regional considerations may not play out in the way some politicians currently project.
Meanwhile, Chief Bode George insisted that, although the PDP will present its presidential candidate, who must come from the South, he would personally oppose any Northern candidate in 2027, given that former President Buhari had already served a full eight-year tenure.
However, the former governor of Kaduna State recently told a television programme that he believes the incumbent President will finish a distant third in the 2027 race, even though he anticipates a potential rerun from the first ballot.
